Mar-26 Roy Morgan Poll Data

NOTE: If we look at the data below, the Roy Morgan poll is the most negative to National of all the polls - and has been continuously for the last 2.5 years. Despite this the voting intentions do make interesting reading:

A Deeply Fragmented Electorate by Gender & Age

The poll shows a very pronounced demographic split—arguably one of the clearest in recent NZ polling:

• Men → strongly centre-right

• Women → strongly centre-left

• Older voters → more conservative

• Younger voters → more progressive (especially women)

This is not marginal—it is structurally significant.

New Zealand is now running two parallel electorates:a male, older, centre-right bloc—and a younger, female, centre-left bloc. The election won’t be won in the middle of the spectrum.It will be won at the intersection of age and gender—particularly among women who are not yet locked into either camp.

Bottom Line

This poll is not just “close”—it reveals a structural realignment:

• Gender has overtaken class as the key political divide

• Age reinforces—but does not override—that divide

• Election outcome will hinge on middle-aged women and younger men

Gender Divide (Very pronounced)

Men

• 57% support the Government (National/ACT/NZ First)

• 38.5% support Opposition

A ~18–19 point advantage for the centre-right

Women

• 55.5% support Opposition (Labour/Greens/TPM)

• 39.5% support Government

A ~16 point advantage for the centre-left

Interpretation

• This is a textbook “gender polarisation” election

• Comparable to trends seen in:

o   US (Trump-era gender gap)

o   UK (post-Brexit realignment)

Politically: Women are now the Opposition’s core base, whereas Men—especially older men—anchor the National-led Government

Age + Gender Interaction (Where it gets interesting)

1. Younger Men (18–49)

• Opposition: 48% 

• Government: 46.5% 

Essentially split / marginal lean left

Key takeaway:Young men are no longer a reliable right bloc

2. Older Men (50+)

• Government: 67.5% 

• Opposition: significantly lower

This is the Government’s strongest demographic by far

Key takeaway:Older men = electoral backbone of the coalition

3. Younger Women (18–49)

• Strongly Opposition-leaning (implied from broader trend)

• Very negative “country direction” sentiment

Likely the most anti-Government group

Key takeaway:This cohort is driving Labour/Greens momentum

4. Older Women (50+)

• Opposition: 50% 

• Government: 46.5% 

Slight lean left, but far more balanced

Key takeaway:Older women are the true swing bloc

Party-Level Signals by Demographic

From the breakdown:

• National strongest with older men (44%)

• Labour strongest with women 50+ (39%)

• ACT heavily male-skewed

• NZ First strongest among older voters (especially men)

This reinforces:

§ Right = older, male, status quo voters

§ Left = female, younger, change-oriented voters

Strategic Interpretation 

1. This election will be decided by women, not men

Men are already “locked in”:

• Government has dominant male support

• Opposition has dominant female support

The marginal vote sits with women 40–65

2. The Government has a demographic concentration risk

• Heavily reliant on:

o   Older men

o   Provincial / traditional voters

Risk:

• Limited growth ceiling

• Vulnerable if turnout shifts

3. The Opposition coalition has a coalition-building advantage

• Strong across:

o   Women

o   Younger voters

• More demographically diverse

But:

• Needs to convert sentiment into turnout 

4. Younger men are the true “floating voter bloc”

• Almost perfectly split

This group will decide:

• Urban electorates & Provincial swing seats