Mar-26 Roy Morgan Poll Data

NOTE: If we look at the data below, the Roy Morgan poll is the most negative to National of all the polls - and has been continuously for the last 2.5 years. Despite this the voting intentions do make interesting reading:

A Deeply Fragmented Electorate by Gender & Age

The poll shows a very pronounced demographic split—arguably one of the clearest in recent NZ polling:

• Men → strongly centre-right

• Women → strongly centre-left

• Older voters → more conservative

• Younger voters → more progressive (especially women)

This is not marginal—it is structurally significant.

New Zealand is now running two parallel electorates:a male, older, centre-right bloc—and a younger, female, centre-left bloc. The election won’t be won in the middle of the spectrum.It will be won at the intersection of age and gender—particularly among women who are not yet locked into either camp.

Bottom Line

This poll is not just “close”—it reveals a structural realignment:

• Gender has overtaken class as the key political divide

• Age reinforces—but does not override—that divide

• Election outcome will hinge on middle-aged women and younger men

Gender Divide (Very pronounced)

Men

• 57% support the Government (National/ACT/NZ First)

• 38.5% support Opposition

A ~18–19 point advantage for the centre-right

Women

• 55.5% support Opposition (Labour/Greens/TPM)

• 39.5% support Government

A ~16 point advantage for the centre-left

Interpretation

• This is a textbook “gender polarisation” election

• Comparable to trends seen in:

o   US (Trump-era gender gap)

o   UK (post-Brexit realignment)

Politically: Women are now the Opposition’s core base, whereas Men—especially older men—anchor the National-led Government

Age + Gender Interaction (Where it gets interesting)

1. Younger Men (18–49)

• Opposition: 48% 

• Government: 46.5% 

Essentially split / marginal lean left

Key takeaway:Young men are no longer a reliable right bloc

2. Older Men (50+)

• Government: 67.5% 

• Opposition: significantly lower

This is the Government’s strongest demographic by far

Key takeaway:Older men = electoral backbone of the coalition

3. Younger Women (18–49)

• Strongly Opposition-leaning (implied from broader trend)

• Very negative “country direction” sentiment

Likely the most anti-Government group

Key takeaway:This cohort is driving Labour/Greens momentum

4. Older Women (50+)

• Opposition: 50% 

• Government: 46.5% 

Slight lean left, but far more balanced

Key takeaway:Older women are the true swing bloc

Party-Level Signals by Demographic

From the breakdown:

• National strongest with older men (44%)

• Labour strongest with women 50+ (39%)

• ACT heavily male-skewed

• NZ First strongest among older voters (especially men)

This reinforces:

§ Right = older, male, status quo voters

§ Left = female, younger, change-oriented voters

Strategic Interpretation 

1. This election will be decided by women, not men

Men are already “locked in”:

• Government has dominant male support

• Opposition has dominant female support

The marginal vote sits with women 40–65

2. The Government has a demographic concentration risk

• Heavily reliant on:

o   Older men

o   Provincial / traditional voters

Risk:

• Limited growth ceiling

• Vulnerable if turnout shifts

3. The Opposition coalition has a coalition-building advantage

• Strong across:

o   Women

o   Younger voters

• More demographically diverse

But:

• Needs to convert sentiment into turnout 

4. Younger men are the true “floating voter bloc”

• Almost perfectly split

This group will decide:

• Urban electorates & Provincial swing seats

CHARITABLE TRUSTS - DID YOU KNOW THESE BUSINESSES ARE ACTUALLY CHARITIES... AND EXEMPT FROM TAXES

I asked Chat GPT to analyse non (or low) paying tax Charitable Companies in New Zealand — here is its ranked list of large NZ charity-linked groups and iwi trusts that sit in structures with income-tax exemption or charity-linked tax advantages.

Two important caveats before the table.First, this does not prove each group paid “zero tax” in total; many still pay GST, PAYE and other taxes. The issue is mainly income tax treatment. Registered charities are generally exempt from income tax, and charity-owned business income can also be exempt where the rules are met.

Second, iwi groups are often mixed structures: a charitable or tribal trust at the top, with some taxable commercial subsidiaries underneath. So they are not all directly comparable to a pure charity like St John or IHC.

Largest verified charity-linked groups and Iwi trusts in New Zealand

Biggest takeaway

The headline is that New Zealand’s charity-linked tax issue is not mainly about small volunteer groups. At the top end it involves very large organisations with annual income in the tens or hundreds of millions, and in some cases asset bases well above $1 billion. That is true for mainstream charities, church-linked organisations, and some iwi trust structures.

 

Important names that are also relevant

A few other names are clearly part of the debate, but I did not include them in the ranked table because I did not have equally clean, comparable current figures in front of me:

§ Large Catholic and Anglican diocesan groups — some have very substantial assets, but current figures are harder to compare cleanly across diocesan and parish structures. One example: the Roman Catholic Diocese of Auckland’s 2025 annual report snippet refers to a $32.96m consolidated surplus.

This is no longer a debate about raffles, op shops and church cake stalls. At the top end, NZ’s charity regime now covers some very large organisations with serious revenue, major property portfolios and, in a few cases, billion-dollar balance sheets. Some are plainly charitable in function. Some are iwi structures with mixed commercial and charitable arms. Some operate in markets where fully taxable private firms also compete. That does not mean the exemption is wrong. But it does mean the question of competitive neutrality is now unavoidable.

If everyone running a commercial business paid their fair share of tax,

then all taxpayers could pay much less tax.

Nov-25 Roy Morgan Political Poll Analysis

Analysis of the Party Vote - the Power of AI

I asked ChatGPT to analysis the latest Roy Morgan Political Poll and this is what it came up with….

The centre-right bloc (National + ACT + NZ First) still leads among men, especially older men, but is losing ground with women, particularly those aged 50+.

The centre-left bloc (Labour + Greens + Māori Party) is now dominant among women over 50 and holding strong among women under 50, but struggling badly with men, especially older men.

In short: Women lean left; men lean right — and the split is widening.

Where National is gaining and losing

Gaining: Older men

• 40% of men 50+ now back National (up from ~38% in 2023).

• National remains the anchor of the right-leaning vote among men.

Losing: Women

• Support among women overall has fallen from 38% to 33%.

• Worst hit is women 50+, where National drops to 18.5% — a collapse.

This gender split is one of the most striking features in all modern NZ polling.ACT and NZ First are now “male parties”

ACT and NZ First both show double-digit support among men, especially 50+.

• ACT: 11% of men 50+ vs only 3.5% of women 50+

• NZ First: 14% of men 50+ vs only 3% of women 50+

Together, the two support bases form a male-heavy conservative flank. ACT/NZF also attract many frustrated male voters who previously voted National.

Labour: women are saving the party

Labour’s overall vote remains well below 2020 levels, but among women the picture is much healthier:

• Women 50+: 41.5%

• Women 18–49: 38.5%

This is a huge gender gap compared to men:

• Men 18–49: 18%

• Men 50+: 16%

Labour now has a two-to-one advantage with women, but a two-to-one disadvantage with men. This gender split is now one of the largest in NZ political history.

Greens: strong with men under 50; very strong with women over 50

The Greens’ coalition contribution is highly polarised:

• Women 50+: 16.5%

• Men 50+: 13%

• Women 18–49: only 10.5%

• Men 18–49: 18%

The Greens draw heavily from two groups:

• Younger progressive men

• Older progressive women

They do not perform well with middle-aged women or older men.

Māori Party: very strong with older women

The Māori Party numbers are small overall but follow the same pattern:

• Women 50+: 8%

• Women 18–49: 4%

• Men anywhere: basically 0–1%

Their vote is almost exclusively female and older.

Bloc comparison — where the election is won

Centre-Right (National + ACT + NZF)

• Men 50+: 65%

• Men 18–49: 58.5%

• Women 18–49: 41%

• Women 50+: only 25%

Key takeaway: Older men are the bedrock of the centre-right vote.

Centre-Left (Labour + Greens + Māori Party)

• Women 50+: 66%

• Women 18–49: 53%

• Men 18–49: 36.5%

• Men 50+: only 30%

Key takeaway: Older women are now the backbone of the centre-left.

What this means for the 2026 election

Centre-right path to victory:

They must stop their collapse among women, especially women 50+.If National stays below 20% with older women, the right risks losing Auckland and Wellington suburbs.

The election is likely decided by one group: Women aged 50+

This group is:

• Large

• Consistent voters

• Currently 66% centre-left

• Dropping sharply away from National

ChatGPT concludes: If the right can claw back older women, they win. If the left can pick up more male voters, they win.