Latest Roy Morgan Political Poll Analysis

Analysis of the Party Vote - the Power of AI

I asked ChatGPT to analysis the latest Roy Morgan Political Poll and this is what it came up with….

The centre-right bloc (National + ACT + NZ First) still leads among men, especially older men, but is losing ground with women, particularly those aged 50+.

The centre-left bloc (Labour + Greens + Māori Party) is now dominant among women over 50 and holding strong among women under 50, but struggling badly with men, especially older men.

In short: Women lean left; men lean right — and the split is widening.

Where National is gaining and losing

Gaining: Older men

• 40% of men 50+ now back National (up from ~38% in 2023).

• National remains the anchor of the right-leaning vote among men.

Losing: Women

• Support among women overall has fallen from 38% to 33%.

• Worst hit is women 50+, where National drops to 18.5% — a collapse.

This gender split is one of the most striking features in all modern NZ polling.ACT and NZ First are now “male parties”

ACT and NZ First both show double-digit support among men, especially 50+.

• ACT: 11% of men 50+ vs only 3.5% of women 50+

• NZ First: 14% of men 50+ vs only 3% of women 50+

Together, the two support bases form a male-heavy conservative flank. ACT/NZF also attract many frustrated male voters who previously voted National.

Labour: women are saving the party

Labour’s overall vote remains well below 2020 levels, but among women the picture is much healthier:

• Women 50+: 41.5%

• Women 18–49: 38.5%

This is a huge gender gap compared to men:

• Men 18–49: 18%

• Men 50+: 16%

Labour now has a two-to-one advantage with women, but a two-to-one disadvantage with men. This gender split is now one of the largest in NZ political history.

Greens: strong with men under 50; very strong with women over 50

The Greens’ coalition contribution is highly polarised:

• Women 50+: 16.5%

• Men 50+: 13%

• Women 18–49: only 10.5%

• Men 18–49: 18%

The Greens draw heavily from two groups:

• Younger progressive men

• Older progressive women

They do not perform well with middle-aged women or older men.

Māori Party: very strong with older women

The Māori Party numbers are small overall but follow the same pattern:

• Women 50+: 8%

• Women 18–49: 4%

• Men anywhere: basically 0–1%

Their vote is almost exclusively female and older.

Bloc comparison — where the election is won

Centre-Right (National + ACT + NZF)

• Men 50+: 65%

• Men 18–49: 58.5%

• Women 18–49: 41%

• Women 50+: only 25%

Key takeaway: Older men are the bedrock of the centre-right vote.

Centre-Left (Labour + Greens + Māori Party)

• Women 50+: 66%

• Women 18–49: 53%

• Men 18–49: 36.5%

• Men 50+: only 30%

Key takeaway: Older women are now the backbone of the centre-left.

What this means for the 2026 election

Centre-right path to victory:

They must stop their collapse among women, especially women 50+.If National stays below 20% with older women, the right risks losing Auckland and Wellington suburbs.

The election is likely decided by one group: Women aged 50+

This group is:

• Large

• Consistent voters

• Currently 66% centre-left

• Dropping sharply away from National

ChatGPT concludes: If the right can claw back older women, they win. If the left can pick up more male voters, they win.

HOW DO THE PUBLIC SECTOR UNIONS JUSTIFY THE 23rd OCTOBER STRIKES

David Farrar (Kiwiblog) stated the facts....

• The fact that public sector employees are paid an average of $2,003 a week compared to $1,592 a week for private sector employees whose taxes fund the public sector

• An offer to primary teachers that would see those paid over $100,000 increasing from 40% to 66%

• An offer to secondary teachers that would see those paid over $100,000 increasing from 60% to 76%

• An average total remuneration package for senior doctors of $343,500 a year, plus six weeks annual leave and a three month paid sabbatical every six years.

  
  

• A 2% increase for senior nurses whose average salary is already $125,662

• An offer to graduate nurses whose current salary of $75,773 would see them earning $84,150 by June 2026.

The Unions fund the Labour Party - so this is a direct beat-up of the National Coalition Government, that has nothing to do with achieving a fair outcome for Public Sector employees, and everything to do with weaponising our children, our elderly and our health compromised, to achieve political mischief. This is political hypocrisy at its worst by Labour.

Health Targets starting to work for National

On 14th October 2025 1Kiwiblog highlighted the latest health target achievement progress.

Health targets data shows that progress (ie being made) after the abysmal performance of the health system under Labour.

National got 90% of patients starting cancer treatment within 31 days. It dropped to 83.5% but has increased by 3% in the last year.

The immunisation rate was close to 95%. It dropped to 74% and is now at 82%.

ED were seeing over 90% of patients within six hours. It dropped to just over 70%. Still a long way to go, but now at 74%.

Seeing a specialist within four months was close to 100%. It dropped to 61.5% and has yet to increase.

A small improvement here.