Latest Roy Morgan Political Poll Analysis

Analysis of the Party Vote - the Power of AI

I asked ChatGPT to analysis the latest Roy Morgan Political Poll and this is what it came up with….

The centre-right bloc (National + ACT + NZ First) still leads among men, especially older men, but is losing ground with women, particularly those aged 50+.

The centre-left bloc (Labour + Greens + Māori Party) is now dominant among women over 50 and holding strong among women under 50, but struggling badly with men, especially older men.

In short: Women lean left; men lean right — and the split is widening.

Where National is gaining and losing

Gaining: Older men

• 40% of men 50+ now back National (up from ~38% in 2023).

• National remains the anchor of the right-leaning vote among men.

Losing: Women

• Support among women overall has fallen from 38% to 33%.

• Worst hit is women 50+, where National drops to 18.5% — a collapse.

This gender split is one of the most striking features in all modern NZ polling.ACT and NZ First are now “male parties”

ACT and NZ First both show double-digit support among men, especially 50+.

• ACT: 11% of men 50+ vs only 3.5% of women 50+

• NZ First: 14% of men 50+ vs only 3% of women 50+

Together, the two support bases form a male-heavy conservative flank. ACT/NZF also attract many frustrated male voters who previously voted National.

Labour: women are saving the party

Labour’s overall vote remains well below 2020 levels, but among women the picture is much healthier:

• Women 50+: 41.5%

• Women 18–49: 38.5%

This is a huge gender gap compared to men:

• Men 18–49: 18%

• Men 50+: 16%

Labour now has a two-to-one advantage with women, but a two-to-one disadvantage with men. This gender split is now one of the largest in NZ political history.

Greens: strong with men under 50; very strong with women over 50

The Greens’ coalition contribution is highly polarised:

• Women 50+: 16.5%

• Men 50+: 13%

• Women 18–49: only 10.5%

• Men 18–49: 18%

The Greens draw heavily from two groups:

• Younger progressive men

• Older progressive women

They do not perform well with middle-aged women or older men.

Māori Party: very strong with older women

The Māori Party numbers are small overall but follow the same pattern:

• Women 50+: 8%

• Women 18–49: 4%

• Men anywhere: basically 0–1%

Their vote is almost exclusively female and older.

Bloc comparison — where the election is won

Centre-Right (National + ACT + NZF)

• Men 50+: 65%

• Men 18–49: 58.5%

• Women 18–49: 41%

• Women 50+: only 25%

Key takeaway: Older men are the bedrock of the centre-right vote.

Centre-Left (Labour + Greens + Māori Party)

• Women 50+: 66%

• Women 18–49: 53%

• Men 18–49: 36.5%

• Men 50+: only 30%

Key takeaway: Older women are now the backbone of the centre-left.

What this means for the 2026 election

Centre-right path to victory:

They must stop their collapse among women, especially women 50+.If National stays below 20% with older women, the right risks losing Auckland and Wellington suburbs.

The election is likely decided by one group: Women aged 50+

This group is:

• Large

• Consistent voters

• Currently 66% centre-left

• Dropping sharply away from National

ChatGPT concludes: If the right can claw back older women, they win. If the left can pick up more male voters, they win.