Fact-checking Hipkins' Labour Government claims

Oliver Hartwick makes some very good points in his latest opinion piece on the website "Bassett, Brash & Hide". Hartwick is the Executive Director of the New Zealand Initiative.

Hipkins, just like Ardern, believes he can spin his way to a successful election outcome. I certainly hope not, because the last six years has been synonymous with pithy announcement, but a total failure in the execution.

They say truth is the first casualty of war. It is also the first casualty of election campaigns. I tuned in to Chris Hipkins’ address at the Labour Party conference last Sunday. My heart was pounding as the Prime Minister went through his government’s extensive list of achievements (though it’s possible that my exercise bike played a bigger role in that than Hipkins’ delivery.)

In any case, I was glad to be in the gym as that allowed me to turn my frustration into a more vigorous workout. Because frustrating it was when the Prime Minister tried to make us believe he had presided over a spectacularly successful delivery machine.

After every sentence, I wished someone had hit the pause button on Hipkins’ speech to fact-check his assertions. But this was live TV, and it would have been naïve to believe that any New Zealand journalist would bother to do so afterwards. It would have been worth it, though, because the discrepancy between Hipkins’ claims and our cold, hard reality could not have been starker.

Take this gem from Hipkins’ speech: “We’ve lifted incomes for thousands of Kiwi families through increases to the minimum wage, boosts to benefits and student allowances, increases to superannuation, and through managing an economy that has seen the wages of Kiwi workers growing.”

Yes, it is true that the minimum wage, benefits and student allowances have all gone up. But is that a good thing? Well, not quite.

New Zealand now has a minimum wage that is among the world’s highest relative to average wages. That is something to be concerned about, not to celebrate. Increasing the minimum wage too close to the average wage can lead to both inflation and higher unemployment.

Our benefits have also gone up, and the government no longer tries to wean people off welfare. So, unsurprisingly, we have high beneficiary numbers even as the labour market remains tight. That is hardly an achievement.

It is also true that wages are growing, but they are struggling to keep up with cost-of-living increases. Most New Zealanders would not say they feel any better off under this government. After just a little digging, there is little left of Hipkins’ grandiose rhetoric.

He went on: “We’ve made the teaching of New Zealand history in schools universal, introduced a public holiday for Matariki, and we passed the landmark Zero Carbon Act.” All factually correct, of course. But hardly anything to crow about. The New Zealand history curriculum is a disaster. It teaches our children a highly selective (and biased) story of New Zealand. It appalled even the Royal Society.

The public holiday for Matariki is wonderful, of course – except another public holiday is yet another cost for businesses to bear at a time when many can hardly afford the holidays we already have.

And then there is the Zero Carbon Act, which establishes a grand central planning regime for carbon emissions, even though New Zealand already has an Emissions Trading Scheme that is way more efficient in reducing our carbon footprint.

But, just as you thought Hipkins’ self-praise could not get more absurd, he said this: “We’ve put tackling climate change at the heart of our work, we’ve made tangible progress to tackle the burgeoning mental health challenge we face, and we’ve put more cops on the beat.” Oh well. Tackling climate change, see above. Mental health? Wasn’t that the $1.9 billion in the first ‘Wellbeing Budget’ which failed to create a single new mental health bed? And as for more police, try telling that to retailers who get ram-raided every 15 hours on average. At least the government is giving them fog cannons now.

Hipkins continued: “We’ve got more work to do to make sure our young Kiwis are positively engaged in education and in our local communities. I’m simply not willing to write off some of our youngest and most vulnerable kids and resign them to a life in and out of the justice system when we know there is a better way.”

Positively engaged in education? If only. It was on Hipkins’ watch as education minister the school attendance rates went from bad to worse. And crime ballooned during Hipkins’ tenure as minister of police. And so it went on and on ... and on. Hipkins praised Minister of Finance Grant Robertson for “careful economic management.”

Well, under Robertson, the government has accumulated an extra $11,700 of debt per person (inflation-adjusted). This year, it is spending an (also inflation-adjusted) $4,800 more per person each year compared to 2017.

True, some of that is due to Covid. But the largesse had well and truly started before Covid hit. By 2019, both per capita spending and debt had already started to soar – and it was well above Labour’s fiscal plan at the 2017 election.

The Prime Minister talked about cutting the $5 prescription fee and how his government is making the country healthier. Except he forgot to mention the lengthening wait lists for elective surgeries, the ridiculous overcrowding at our hospitals’ A&E, and the challenges in even registering with a GP.

In a similar vein, Hipkins boasted about the extra 20 hours of free early childhood education. What he did not mention was that many families will struggle to make use of this allowance because the providers simply aren’t there. Or the fact that the policy is so poorly designed that some providers of early childhood education are now thinking of exiting the market. I am not writing about this to make a party-political point. Frankly, I could not care less what colours our political leaders wear.

But I do care for good policy. And there simply wasn’t much of it in Hipkins speech – or indeed in the government of which he has been a prominent member for the past five years.

However, I do agree with one thing Hipkins said: “New Zealanders deserve better than that. They deserve a government that works for everyone. A government committed to the value that the circumstances you were born into shouldn’t limit your opportunities in life. A government committed to the value that if you work hard, you should be able to get ahead and create a better life for you and your family.”

It is just a pity that we haven’t had such a government for a long time.

Hipkins announces new Cabinet - will an early election follow?

Big winners are Jan Tinetti (16th to 6th), Michael Wood (17th to 7th), and Ayesha Verrall (20th to 12th).

The biggest loser was Nanaia Mahutu (down from 9th to 16th) who lost Local Government. This is a huge signal that Three Waters is in big trouble under a Hipkins Government.

Phil Twyford, who said he will be competing in the 2023 Election, was completely dropped from Cabinet.

Don't be surprised if Hipkins doesn't now call an early election, on the back of his poll bounce. A May to July election looks as an increased likelihood now.

Keeping Climate Change within context

It is easy to say that warm and wet are signs of climate change. However, NIWA has identified that we are in a 3 year spell of La Niña. Yes, this is causing unusually warm seas, which does bring increased storm effects, but El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of a naturally occurring global climate cycle known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. ENSO influences rainfall, temperature, and wind patterns around the world, including New Zealand. El Niño and La Niña episodes occur on average every few years and last up to around a year or two. This is a normal process and not about Climate Change.

Below is a report by John Maunder, a Tauranga based climate scientist, who is well respected by his peers.

Tauranga Annual Rainfalls 1898-2022

Weather Eye with John Maunder 9th January 2022

Monthly rainfalls for Tauranga have been recorded at several recording sites during the last 124 years.

The rainfall for Tauranga for 2022 was 1842 mm, the fourth highest on record (since 1898) .

From January 1898 to December 1904, the observation site was described as the Tauranga Harbour, from November 1904 to April 1907 the site was described as simply ‘Tauranga'. From January 1910 to December 1923 the site was Waikareao, in Otumoetai; from January 1924 to September 1940 the site was at 148 Waihi Rd, in Judea; from October 1940 to January 1941 the site was at Te Puna; and from February 1941 to now, the site is Tauranga Airport.

The methodology used in adjusting the older sites to the current observing site was published in the NZ Meteorological Service Miscellaneous Publication No 180 in 1984. It is considered that the homogeneous rainfall series described here is a fair and true record of what the rainfall would have been if the current observation site (Tauranga Airport) had been used since 1898.

This should be coupled with the understanding that although standard accepted methodologies have been used, any adjustments are only estimates of what would have occurred if the location of the rainfall records had always been in the same place with the same surroundings and the same or similar recording gauge.

In terms of climate change (such as is it getting wetter or drier, or warmer or colder), the methodology used in computing an ‘official' set of climate observations is very important, as otherwise erroneous conclusions may be drawn.

The long-term average rainfall for Tauranga for the calendar year is 1300 mm, ranging from a low of 747 mm in 2002, to a high of 2049 mm in 1962. For comparison, the rainfall for the year 2020 was 774 mm which was the third driest year on record, and for 2021 it was 959 mm, while 2022 has 1812 mm the third highest on record (since 1898).

Since 1898, there have been only six years with a rainfall of less than 900 mm, they are 1914, 1982, 1993, 2002, 2019, and 2020, and there has only been five years with a rainfall of more than 1800 mm; they are the two consecutive years of 1916 and 1917, plus 1938 and 1962.

In chronological order, the wettest years occurred in 1916, 1917, 1920, 1935, 1938, 1956, 1962, 1979, 2005, 2011 and 2022; and the driest years occurred in 1906, 1914, 1919, 1973, 1982, 1986, 1993, 1997, 1999, and 2002.

The average rainfall in Tauranga for the 50 years 1911-60 was 1365 mm, compared with the average rainfall for the 50 years 1961-2010 of 1263 mm.

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Tauranga Average Annual Afternoon Temperatures 1914-2022

The average afternoon temperature in 2022 was 20.2 degrees Celsius, which made 2022 the third equal warmest year on record.

Temperatures have been recorded in the Tauranga area at several sites in the last 108 years, including the current Tauranga Airport site from June 1990.

It's very common for areas such as Tauranga to have had different observation sites during the years, and readings from the earlier sites have been adjusted to the present site using standard climatological procedures. The temperature series described here is a record of what the temperature would have been if the current observation site, Tauranga Airport, had been used throughout the period. It's important to note, in considering climate change, the methodology used in computing an official set of climate observations is very important as otherwise erroneous conclusions may be drawn. Traditionally, temperature observations have been recorded with a set of maximum and minimum temperature thermometers.These record the daily maximum temperature, usually recorded in mid-afternoon, and daily minimum temperature, usually recorded just before dawn. This analysis of temperatures for Tauranga is for the average daily maximum temperatures.

The graph below shows details of the average annual daily maximum temperatures (called simply 'afternoon'), for Tauranga for the years 1914-2022.

The long-term average afternoon temperatures for Tauranga for a calendar year is 18.6 degrees Celsius, including the cool years of 18.1 degrees Celsius in 1976, 18.1 degrees Celsius in 1992, 18.2 degrees Celsius in 1923, and 18.3 degrees Celsius in 1918.

In contrast, Tauranga's warmest years (in terms of the average afternoon temperature) are: 20.4 degrees in 2019, 20.3 degrees in 2020, 20.2 degrees Celsius in 2013, 2021, and 2022, 20.1 degrees Celsius in 1916, 20.0 degrees Celsius in 1998, 19.9 degrees Celsius in 2010, 2016 and 2018, and 19.8 degrees Celsius in 1915, 2011, 2014, and 2017.

Since 1914, there have been eighteen calendar years with an average afternoon temperature of 19.6 degrees Celsius or more. In chronological order these years are: 1914, 1915, 1916, 1928, 1998, 1999, 2005, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022.

In contrast, there have been 11 calendar years with an average afternoon temperature of 18.5 degrees Celsius or less. In chronological order these years are: 1918, 1920, 1923, 1941, 1945, 1965, 1976, 1977, 1980, 1991, and 1992.

The graph of the average afternoon temperatures for the years 1914-2022 shows generally normal variations from year to year from 1915 to the mid-1990's, followed by several years of above-average temperatures, including nine of the last ten years.

The annual average afternoon temperature shows a warming of about 0.8 degrees Celsius during the 51 years from 1963-2013 from 19.0 degrees Celsius, compared with 18.2 degrees Celsius during the 49 years from 1914-1962.

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